A two-man sprint to the finish line seems to be shaping up as the election campaign enters the final stretch, while the Conservatives' Stephen Harper has overtaken NDP Leader Jack Layton in a key leadership index, a new poll suggests.

Layton has been riding a recent wave of support that his launched his party into second place behind the Conservatives, mainly thanks to a rise in Quebec at the expense of the slipping Bloc Quebecois.

However, in terms of leadership numbers, Layton has been even stronger, as he leads Harper in terms of trust and vision, according to a Nanos Research poll conducted for CTV and the Globe and Mail.

But in the competence department, Harper has reasserted a nearly 12-point lead, which has placed him back into first following a second-place showing behind Layton on Thursday.

"It's a tussle and a fight between Stephen Harper and Jack Layton on the leadership front," said pollster Nik Nanos.

Overall, here is how the party leaders rank in the daily leadership index, which is an aggregate score consisting of trust, leadership and vision:

  • Conservative Leader Stephen Harper: 101.3
  • NDP Leader Jack Layton: 91.9
  • Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff: 30.3
  • Green Party Leader Elizabeth May: 11.6
  • Bloc Quebecois Leader Gilles Duceppe: 10.7

Duceppe has been taking a beating lately in the polls, as the NDP's rise in Quebec has been proportional to the fall of the separatist party's fortunes.

Meanwhile, Ignatieff's leadership index score has reached its lowest point since the campaign began.

In Thursday's poll, Layton surpassed Harper by an aggregate score of 95.3 to 83.2, which is the first time in the index's three-year history that anyone has pulled in front of the Conservative leader.

A the numbers roll in, both the Liberals and the Conservatives have been launching attacks against Layton, accusing him of using fantasy money in his budget proposals and for lacking substance. Still, Canadians seem to be responding to Layton's calls for a fresh alternative from the usual, two ruling parties.

Here are the support numbers for the major parties, as released earlier on Friday (March 15 poll results in brackets):

  • Conservatives: 36.4 per cent (38.6 per cent)
  • NDP: 31.2 per cent (19.9 per cent)
  • Liberals: 22.0 per cent (27.6 per cent)
  • Bloc Quebecos: 5.7 per cent (10.1 per cent)
  • Green Party : 4.0 per cent (3.8 per cent)

Nanos said it's difficult to predict how those numbers will translate at the ballot box, partly because surging NDP support could split the vote in a number of ridings, particularly in Ontario and British Columbia.

All told, Nanos said May 2 is shaping up to be a "schizophrenic night," although it seems likely the NDP will win a record number of seats while the Liberal and Bloc Quebecois take heavy losses.

Though there's been jostling among the leadership and support numbers, healthcare has been a constant throughout the campaign.

The latest poll is no exception, as health remains the most pressing issue for 30.5 per cent of those surveyed. Jobs and the economy stood as the most important for 23.8 per cent of respondents, while the environment, education and taxes rounded out the top five.

Methodology

A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is plus-minus 2.8%, 19 times out of 20.