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John Breannan

It's All Political: A Tale of Two Debates

In both the French and English language leaders' debates, Stephen Harper was the focus of attacks by the four other leaders.

In the French language debate, Harper was curiously subdued and lethargic. As expected, Stephane Dion and Gilles Duceppe stole the show in the French language debate. Speaking in their first language, both Duceppe and Dion were much more animated than the other leaders. Jack Layton was his usual bombastic self and Elizabeth May tried her best with her weak command of the French language. The French language debate focused on the economy, climate change, cuts to arts funding, youth justice and Afghanistan.

An Ipsos Reid poll done late Wednesday night found that Dion emerged as the clear winner of the French language debate. 40% of respondents said Dion won, 24% Duceppe, 16% Harper, 11% Layton, 1% May. The Quebec polling firm CROP had 54% saying Duceppe won, while 46% had Dion winning.

In the English language debate, Harper was much more engaged. He maintained a steady demeanour and came across as thoughtful and competent. Stephane Dion came across as sincere but was unable to explain in English the complexity of the Green Shift program and some of his other policies as well as he did the previous evening in French. Gilles Duceppe was largely disinterested in the proceedings other than to try and toss the odd hand grenade at Stephen Harper. As he was the previous evening, Jack Layton was once again very spirited and combative, constantly attacking Harper (and to a lesser extent Dion) on a wide range of issues. Elizabeth May was probably the surprise of the evening. May was fearless and feisty throughout the evening and was very persuasive with many of her answers. May even helped Stephane Dion by providing a better explanation, than Dion was able to do in English, of how the Green Shift program would work. Of all the leaders in the English language debate, Elizabeth May probably helped her party the most.

The English language debate focused on the economy, the environment, arts funding, violent crime and Afghanistan. Harper was at his best dealing with a question on how Canada will get through the current economic turmoil. The Conservative leader responded by saying that uncertain economic times require a government that would maintain the status quo. "Canada is not the United States, the situation is very different. The fundamentals of our economy are strong," he said. "We have a budget surplus. We have an economy that continues to create jobs. We're not experiencing a crisis in our financial system. The big challenge as far as I'm concerned is to stay on the right track, said Harper. An Ipsos Reid poll taken after the English language debate found that 31% of those polled thought that Stephen Harper won the debate, 25% that Layton had, 17% May, 15% Dion and 2% Duceppe.

At the end of the day what can we take away from the leader's debate?

First, politics does not happen in a vacuum. The turmoil in the financial markets has affected the election campaign. Canadians' anxiety about the economy, fed in large part by the economic uncertainty in the United States, allows Harper to promote his party's policy of fiscal prudence and economic stability. In contrast with all the opposition parties who are all promoting sweeping change and big spending promises.

Second, although Stephane Dion did very well in the French language debate, his performance will probably not elect any Liberal MP's outside of Montreal, because the Liberals trail the Bloc Quebecois (BQ) and the Conservatives in the fifty ridings outside of Montreal.

Third, Gilles Duceppe's performance in the French language debate, together with the negative reaction in Quebec to Harper's cuts to arts and culture programs and his youth justice proposals, has probably saved the BQ from what was, at the beginning of the campaign, a rising tide of support for the Conservatives in Quebec.

Jack Layton did well in both debates but his arguments about increasing corporate taxes (at a time of economic uncertainty) and government spending being the solution to all of Canada's problems, probably only appeals to the people who already support the NDP.

Elizabeth May's performance in the English language debate will certainly buoy the spirits of her supporters. Whether it will be enough to get her elected in Central Nova, or any other Green Party candidates anywhere else in Canada, remains to be seen.


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